Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4c0…b201 other 1427 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$395 (-2%) realized −$368 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate85%1208W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$77
14 days−$80
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$152
crypto 39% −$281
sports 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -12.7% -21.1% 77% 14% -14.0%
≤30d 306 -6.6% -15.5% 84% 14% -12.8%
≤90d 1387 -4.9% -14.0% 86% 18% -11.6%
all 1426 -4.5% -13.6% 85% 18% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 18% -11.7%
10% -21.9% 10% -20.1%
15% -29.4% 6% -27.8%
20% -36.3% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$368
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1208 / 218
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1426 / 1427
History coverage110d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 97¢ 70¢ $100 $73 −$27 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $90 +$14 +16%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $40 +$2 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $77 +$11 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$9 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $90 15h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 17h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 17h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 87¢ $77 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 26h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.68 · official $72.68 (match) · 3300 history records