Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4c0…563b sports 628 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$160 (-1%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%593W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$444
7 days−$444
14 days−$444
30 days−$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$324
other 10% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.2% -24.2% 82% 0% -26.2%
≤30d 13 -13.3% -21.6% 85% 0% -25.4%
≤90d 628 -2.0% -11.4% 94% 6% -13.9%
all 628 -2.0% -11.4% 94% 6% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 6% -13.9%
10% -19.9% 1% -22.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -29.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses593 / 35
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)628 / 628
History coverage78d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 628 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $283 −$283 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $275 +$7 +2%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $216 −$216 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) Jun 26 $255 +$22 +9%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $250 +$5 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $246 +$4 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $244 +$2 +1%
Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) Jun 26 $172 +$1 +1%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $230 +$2 +1%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $228 +$11 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: CD Leganés (-2.5) May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 May 15 $29 −$28 -100%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5) May 15 $30 $0 +1%
Nicolas Jackson: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $20 $0 +2%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $112 +$9 +8%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $13 −$13 -100%
CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Club Santos Laguna vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: CF Monterrey (-2.5) Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
CA Tucumán vs. CA Banfield: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5) Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $10 +$1 +5%
CA Belgrano vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Real Racing Club (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 +$1 +7%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: FC Midtjylland (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Lillestrøm SK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +5%
CD Santa Clara vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
SD Huesca vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +4%
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $283 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $282 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $275 2h
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) BUY Iraq 92¢ $255 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $255 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $114 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $135 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $250 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $246 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $246 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $7 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $237 9h
Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC 99¢ $171 17h
Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC 99¢ $1 17h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $230 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $240 33h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $228 33h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $145 20d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $71 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 27d
Spread: CD Leganés (-2.5) BUY SD Huesca 98¢ $10 39d
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $29 42d
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 50d
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Shabab Saudi Club 99¢ $30 50d
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 92¢ $112 51d
Nicolas Jackson: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 98¢ $20 51d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 98¢ $13 51d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1305 history records