Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4c0…f9b2
politics · 264 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$29
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses77 / 153
Open positions38
Markets (closed)230 / 264
Avg bet$57
Trades / day981.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 38 History 230 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $76 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $257 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $16 $0 -1%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% +$10
other 28% +$1
culture 9% $0
economics 8% $0
tech 6% +$2
world 4% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 32m
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 32m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 33m
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 33m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $0 33m
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $1 33m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 33m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $0 34m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 34m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 34m
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $2 34m
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $4 34m
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 4% -9.4%
≤30d 230 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 230 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 4% -9.4%
all 230 +1.6% -8.1% 33% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover981.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 4% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.10 · official $23.01 · 3500 history records