Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf4bf…2307 crypto 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-8%) realized −$27 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%86W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$24
other 14% −$9
sports 10% +$2
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 44% -8.5%
≤30d 40 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 35% -19.9%
≤90d 40 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 35% -19.9%
all 157 -13.3% -21.6% 55% 39% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 39% -17.5%
10% -29.1% 27% -25.4%
15% -35.9% 15% -32.6%
20% -42.2% 8% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses86 / 71
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)157 / 161
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 21¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3 −$2 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2 −$1 -39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $1 −$1 -53%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $1 $0 +24%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $1 $0 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 16 $17 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 16 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 16 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 11 $3 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $1 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $1 19h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 45¢ $1 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 18¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $1 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $2 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Nuno Borges 80¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 33¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.07 · official $4.07 (match) · 409 history records