Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F4 0xf4bf…c3b9 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+12%) realized +$51 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$47
14 days+$45
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$13
sports 21% +$58
other 9% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +50.1% +35.8% 49% 44% +1.8%
≤30d 42 +46.6% +32.6% 48% 43% +1.2%
≤90d 42 +46.6% +32.6% 48% 43% +1.2%
all 42 +46.6% +32.6% 48% 43% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.6% 43% +1.2%
10% +19.9% 40% -8.5%
15% +8.3% 38% -17.3%
20% -2.3% 36% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)42 / 49
History coverage10d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$32 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$21 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$62 +970%
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$11 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $23 +$17 +72%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$9 +874%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 +$21 +519%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $3 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $27 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.45 · official $20.45 (match) · 147 history records