Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf4b0…d8db sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$173 (+10%) realized +$156 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +65.2% +49.5% 45% 35% -1.0%
≤30d 20 +65.2% +49.5% 45% 35% -1.0%
≤90d 20 +65.2% +49.5% 45% 35% -1.0%
all 20 +65.2% +49.5% 45% 35% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.5% 35% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here +35.2% 20% -10.5%
15% +22.1% 20% -19.2%
20% +10.2% 20% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +100% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$25 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions13
Markets (closed)20 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ 100¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 50¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+52%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 52¢ 55¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ 94¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ 82¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 79¢ 80¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Patricia Georgiana Goina 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 55¢ 50¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+10%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Priska Madelyn Nugroho 81¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 17 $101 −$39 -39%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $29 +$105 +365%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 16 $50 +$3 +7%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$4 -7%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $51 −$10 -19%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $77 −$19 -24%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $9 +$103 +1116%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $51 58m
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 81¢ $50 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Le Yi Liu 43¢ $51 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Rinko Matsuda 81¢ $50 3h
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang BUY Anchisa Chanta 90¢ $50 3h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini BUY Marcello Serafini 21¢ $29 14h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Rio Noguchi 44¢ $51 15h
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik BUY Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ $50 17h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 54¢ $51 17h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) BUY Pieri 51¢ $51 17h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 51¢ $51 17h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari BUY Gianmarco Ferrari 93¢ $50 17h
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) BUY Ruiz 51¢ $51 18h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 62¢ $51 20h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ $50 21h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina BUY Patricia Georgiana Goina 92¢ $50 22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 86¢ $50 22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Claudia Ferrer Perez 20¢ $27 22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Ekaterina Maklakova 59¢ $51 22h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Taiyo Yamanaka 47¢ $51 22h
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $51 23h
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 24h
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) BUY Olivieri 38¢ $51 24h
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara BUY Yuno Kitahara 87¢ $50 25h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 79¢ $50 25h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 55¢ $51 25h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Hyeon Chung 51¢ $51 25h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 78¢ $50 28h
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri BUY Yasmine Mansouri 93¢ $50 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.46 · official $787.46 (match) · 48 history records