Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F4 0xf4b0…d8db sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$173 (+10%) realized +$156 · open +$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day26.7pace

Fees−$18est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)+49.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+65.2%	+49.5%	45%	35%	-1.0%
≤30d	20	+65.2%	+49.5%	45%	35%	-1.0%
≤90d	20	+65.2%	+49.5%	45%	35%	-1.0%
all	20	+65.2%	+49.5%	45%	35%	-1.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover26.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+49.5%	35%	-1.0%
10% ← realistic here	+35.2%	20%	-10.5%
15%	+22.1%	20%	-19.2%
20%	+10.2%	20%	-27.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +65% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +100% → late +30% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs −$25 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.35 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$787

Realized+$156

Unrealized+$17

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$18

Open positions13

Markets (closed)20 / 33

History coverage1d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day26.7

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 13 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng	Tiana Tian Deng	57¢	100¢	$50	$88	+$38 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5)	KT Rolster Challengers	33¢	50¢	$50	$76	+$26 (+52%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)	G2	52¢	55¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti	Marianne Argyrokastriti	90¢	94¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik	Laetitia Sarrazin	80¢	82¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+3%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova	Karine Sarkisova	79¢	80¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina	Patricia Georgiana Goina	92¢	92¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+0%)
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Under 2.5	51¢	50¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura	Hyeon Chung	51¢	50¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5	Under	51¢	50¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Under 2.5	55¢	50¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	G2	24¢	26¢	$35	$39	+$4 (+10%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren	Priska Madelyn Nugroho	81¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	Jun 17	$101	−$39	-39%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang	Jun 17	$50	+$5	+11%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri	Jun 16	$50	+$4	+7%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5)	Jun 16	$51	−$2	-3%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini	Jun 16	$29	+$105	+365%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri	Jun 16	$51	−$2	-3%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari	Jun 16	$50	+$3	+7%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5)	Jun 16	$51	+$81	+158%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$51	−$4	-7%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5)	Jun 16	$51	−$1	-2%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu	Jun 16	$50	+$7	+14%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz	Jun 16	$51	−$10	-19%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez	Jun 16	$77	−$19	-24%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka	Jun 16	$51	+$56	+109%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara	Jun 16	$50	+$7	+14%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito	Jun 16	$50	−$50	-99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez	Jun 16	$9	+$103	+1116%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5)	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	33¢	$51	58m
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren	BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho	81¢	$50	2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu	BUY Le Yi Liu	43¢	$51	2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng	BUY Tiana Tian Deng	57¢	$51	2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY Rinko Matsuda	81¢	$50	3h
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang	BUY Anchisa Chanta	90¢	$50	3h
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini	BUY Marcello Serafini	21¢	$29	14h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur	BUY Rio Noguchi	44¢	$51	15h
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik	BUY Laetitia Sarrazin	80¢	$50	17h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5	BUY Under 2.5	54¢	$51	17h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5)	BUY Pieri	51¢	$51	17h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri	BUY Ipek Oz	51¢	$51	17h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari	BUY Gianmarco Ferrari	93¢	$50	17h
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5)	BUY Ruiz	51¢	$51	18h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz	BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz	62¢	$51	20h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti	BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti	90¢	$50	21h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina	BUY Patricia Georgiana Goina	92¢	$50	22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez	BUY Elena Milovanovic	86¢	$50	22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez	BUY Claudia Ferrer Perez	20¢	$27	22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova	BUY Ekaterina Maklakova	59¢	$51	22h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka	BUY Taiyo Yamanaka	47¢	$51	22h
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5	BUY Under 2.5	51¢	$51	23h
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5	BUY Under	51¢	$51	24h
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5)	BUY Olivieri	38¢	$51	24h
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara	BUY Yuno Kitahara	87¢	$50	25h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova	BUY Karine Sarkisova	79¢	$50	25h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5	BUY Under 2.5	55¢	$51	25h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura	BUY Hyeon Chung	51¢	$51	25h
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito	BUY Sara Saito	78¢	$50	28h
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri	BUY Yasmine Mansouri	93¢	$50	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.46 · official $787.46 (match) · 48 history records