Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4ae…3eb3 other 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+3%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$4
world 29% −$3
politics 10% $0
economics 6% +$2
culture 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% +$1
weather 2% +$32
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 12 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 12 -1.8% -11.1% 33% 0% -10.7%
all 53 +20.2% +8.7% 47% 4% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 4% -6.3%
10% -1.7% 4% -15.3%
15% -11.2% 2% -23.5%
20% -19.9% 2% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.51 per $1 lost it wins $4.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage473d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $23 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $15 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $19 −$1 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $1 $0 +7%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 24 $29 +$2 +8%
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $ Jun 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $15 $0 -1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
F1 season canceled or other team wins? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 09 $18 −$3 -16%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $1 $0 -5%
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? Apr 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 04 $3 +$27 +1058%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 31 $21 $0 -2%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 27 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 8m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 39h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $4 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $32 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $36 20d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 21d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 163 history records