Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4aa…dcc4 crypto 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%41W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$24
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$149
sports 0% +$15
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +33.0% +20.3% 65% 59% -0.9%
≤30d 82 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 41% -14.7%
≤90d 82 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 41% -14.7%
all 82 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 41% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 41% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 34% -22.9%
15% -34.8% 32% -30.3%
20% -41.2% 24% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses41 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage8d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $79 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$24 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$15 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $126 +$80 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $209 +$322 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $154 −$25 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records