Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf4aa…5169 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+23%) realized +$34 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$112
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+64.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +81.9% +64.5% 100% 100% +74.7%
≤30d 3 +81.9% +64.5% 100% 100% +74.7%
≤90d 3 +81.9% +64.5% 100% 100% +74.7%
all 3 +81.9% +64.5% 100% 100% +74.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.5% 100% +74.7%
10% +48.8% 100% +58.0%
15% +34.4% 67% +42.8%
20% +21.2% 67% +28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Karolina Muchova 68¢ 100¢ $88 $130 +$41 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $30 +$47 +156%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$3 +31%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $40 +$23 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 68¢ $90 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Clara Tauson 32¢ $47 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 65¢ $100 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson SELL Karolina Muchova 35¢ $29 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 67¢ $58 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 38¢ $30 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 71¢ $20 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 55¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.73 · official $129.73 (match) · 12 history records