Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

F4 0xf4a8…9129 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$80 (-15%) realized −$80 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-9.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+0.5%	-9.0%	71%	14%	-8.4%
≤30d	7	+0.5%	-9.0%	71%	14%	-8.4%
≤90d	7	+0.5%	-9.0%	71%	14%	-8.4%
all	7	+0.5%	-9.0%	71%	14%	-8.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.0%	14%	-8.4%
10%	-17.8%	14%	-17.2%
15%	-25.7%	14%	-25.2%
20%	-33.0%	14%	-32.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 96% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

80% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$51 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$80

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 18	$101	−$101	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 18	$100	+$7	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 18	$100	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 18	$104	+$96	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 18	$100	+$3	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 18	$12	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 18	$11	−$1	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$8	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records