Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf4a5…34f0 other 913 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-4%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate64%585W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$119
crypto 7% −$4
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -5.3% -14.4% 51% 3% -11.0%
≤30d 126 -4.9% -13.9% 52% 5% -12.8%
≤90d 600 -0.8% -10.2% 75% 7% -10.8%
all 911 -5.4% -14.4% 64% 12% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 12% -13.3%
10% -22.6% 10% -21.6%
15% -30.1% 9% -29.2%
20% -36.9% 8% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses585 / 326
Open positions2
Markets (closed)911 / 913
History coverage159d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 911 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in June 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $16 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $22 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 38m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 42m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 6h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 18h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 19h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 19h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 25h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 28h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 30h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 31h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 32h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 32h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 32h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 32h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 34h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.95 · official $9.95 (match) · 2762 history records