Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf49e…bcf8
sports · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$10 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Under 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Over 7¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$4
other 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $7 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $9 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $7 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $5 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $4 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.1% -36.8% 40% 20% -38.2%
≤30d 5 -30.1% -36.8% 40% 20% -38.2%
≤90d 5 -30.1% -36.8% 40% 20% -38.2%
all 5 -30.1% -36.8% 40% 20% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 20% -38.2%
10% -42.8% 20% -44.1%
15% -48.4% 20% -49.5%
20% -53.4% 20% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.05 · official $32.05 (match) · 12 history records