Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf49d…5474 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,703now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$9
politics 30% −$5
sports 2% +$20
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -77.3% -79.5% 22% 0% -23.6%
≤30d 9 -77.3% -79.5% 22% 0% -23.6%
≤90d 18 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 42 -23.5% -30.7% 40% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 10% -9.5%
10% -37.4% 10% -18.2%
15% -43.4% 5% -26.1%
20% -49.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$1,703
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage699d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Human moon landing in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,333 $1,332 −$1 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Is Earth flat? No 98¢ 98¢ $121 $121 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 12, 3PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 12, 3PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Apr 20 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Apr 20 $21 $0 +2%
Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Apr 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 20 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,010 −$3 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in July? Oct 12 $2 +$1 +49%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Jul 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Jul 01 $20 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jul 01 $50 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jul 01 $50 +$20 +39%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 09 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Jeffery Xiong win the World Rapid Championship? Jan 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Levon Aronian win the World Rapid Championship? Jan 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the World Rapid Championship? Jan 09 $100 +$1 +1%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
September temperature increase by between 1.23-1.28°C? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House Dec 25 $1 $0 +33%
2024 Balance of Power: Other Dec 25 $42 $0 -0%
Musk remains richest man through September 30? Oct 10 $5 $0 +1%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Sep 23 $30 $0 -0%
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Aug 31? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D House Aug 31 $37 $0 -0%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 31 $627 −$2 -0%
Great Britain wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 31 $638 −$1 -0%
Another country wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 31 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele Jul 31 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jul 31 $610 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Human moon landing in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,334 1h
Is Earth flat? BUY No 98¢ $121 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 66d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,007 66d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $85 82d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $13 82d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $3 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $4 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 82d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $27 82d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $4 82d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $96 82d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $33 82d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $60 82d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 82d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $100 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,703.13 · official $1,703.13 (match) · 129 history records