Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf49c…9786
other · 54 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18,303 -77%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,235 · open −$21,609
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 156 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,235
7 days−$9,235
14 days−$9,235
30 days−$9,235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $27,683 $26,125 −$1,558 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21,069 $20,947 −$122 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20,318 $20,517 +$199 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17,901 $18,142 +$241 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16,116 $16,028 −$88 (-1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10,764 $9,940 −$824 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8,117 $9,131 +$1,015 (+12%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $7,803 $8,311 +$508 (+7%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $8,400 $8,250 −$150 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7,600 $8,075 +$475 (+6%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $8,791 $7,918 −$874 (-10%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,220 $6,458 +$238 (+4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,810 $6,385 +$575 (+10%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $5,866 $6,306 +$440 (+7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,218 $6,150 +$932 (+18%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $3,744 $5,612 +$1,868 (+50%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $8,458 $5,504 −$2,954 (-35%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,500 $5,250 +$750 (+17%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,566 $5,200 −$366 (-7%)
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $4,730 $4,840 +$110 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,855 $4,818 +$964 (+25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,047 $4,570 +$1,523 (+50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,000 $4,500 +$1,500 (+50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,500 $4,275 −$225 (-5%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12,692 $3,874 −$8,818 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 12 $2,369 −$2,369 -100%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $2,283 −$2,283 -100%
Will Astralis win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $616 −$616 -100%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $308 −$267 -87%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $127 −$112 -89%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $82 −$77 -94%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $407 −$407 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $44 +$507 +1156%
Will Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $2,232 −$2,232 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$22,245
sports 2% −$97
world 0% +$733
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Se BUY Yes $0 0m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $100 4m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4m
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 4m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $4 4m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $3 4m
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $2 4m
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 4m
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $3 4m
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $0 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.1% -16.8% 7% 7% -94.4%
≤30d 14 -8.1% -16.8% 7% 7% -94.4%
≤90d 14 -8.1% -16.8% 7% 7% -94.4%
all 14 -8.1% -16.8% 7% 7% -94.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3496.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 7% -94.4%
10% -24.8% 7% -94.9%
15% ← realistic here -32.1% 7% -95.4%
20% -38.7% 7% -95.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284,077.85 · official $284,078.97 (match) · 3500 history records