Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf49c…4e17 sports 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$56 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$18
other 24% −$15
politics 16% −$9
economics 14% −$12
crypto 7% −$3
tech 5% +$2
world 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 94 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage170d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $51 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $168 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $763 −$4 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $941 −$2 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $297 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $385 −$1 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $171 −$1 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $176 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $587 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $188 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $962 −$3 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $831 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $403 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $499 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $383 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 03 $187 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 03 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $615 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 03 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $630 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $62 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 96¢ $19 13d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 98¢ $20 14d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $64 28d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $65 28d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $51 35d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $51 36d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $49 43d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $49 43d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $174 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $175 115d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $170 115d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $170 115d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $173 115d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $174 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $178 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $179 115d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $168 115d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $168 115d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 95¢ $176 115d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 96¢ $176 115d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $179 115d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $179 115d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $174 115d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $174 115d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $170 115d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $170 115d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $171 115d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $171 115d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $4 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.92 · official $60.92 (match) · 382 history records