Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf49b…7020 other 1587 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1582W / 2L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$13
sports 43% +$18
politics 1% +$1
world 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 325 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 2% -9.3%
≤30d 706 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 1422 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 1% -9.0%
all 1584 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1582 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1584 / 1587
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FlyQuest qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jamie Joyce receive the most votes in the CA-12 primary? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ali Reza Beiranvand: 4+ saves Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Saeid Ezatolahi: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Callum McCowatt: 3+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Nick Martinez: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 5+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Kai-Wei Teng: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Musab Al Juwayr: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Musab Al Juwayr: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Brian Rodríguez: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Norris? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 3+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Brooks Lee: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Verstappen? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hamilton? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Jared Young: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Rodrigo Zalazar: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Emiliano Martínez: 3+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Saleh Al Shehri: 3+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Manuel Ugarte: 2+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: HARD GRIND (-1.5) vs Dark Phoenix (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Diego Moreira: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ReThink (-3.5) vs Wingman (+3.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Eric García: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump post "Russia" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Gorgodze vs. Brancaccio: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Valiente vs. Lopatic: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Passaro/Vasami vs. Bondioli/Caniato: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bebop (-3.5) vs RUSTEC (+3.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-9.5) vs G2 Ares (+9.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Anthony Elanga: 5+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Sebastian Tounekti: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Isak: 1+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Elias Saad: 2+ shots Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Benjamin Nygren: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
Firas Chaouat: 1+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FlyQuest qualify to the MSI 2026 Bracket Stage? BUY No 100¢ $5 15m
Saeid Ezatolahi: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 28m
Will Jamie Joyce receive the most votes in the CA-12 primary? BUY No 100¢ $5 40m
Ali Reza Beiranvand: 4+ saves BUY Yes 99¢ $5 53m
Callum McCowatt: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Nick Martinez: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Kai-Wei Teng: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Musab Al Juwayr: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Musab Al Juwayr: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Brian Rodríguez: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Federico Viñas: 3+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Brooks Lee: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Jared Young: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? BUY Hamilton 99¢ $5 5h
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Norris? BUY Norris 100¢ $5 5h
Who will finish higher: Norris or Verstappen? BUY Norris 100¢ $5 6h
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hamilton? BUY Hamilton 100¢ $5 6h
Rodrigo Zalazar: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Saleh Al Shehri: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Emiliano Martínez: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Manuel Ugarte: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Diego Moreira: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Game Handicap: HARD GRIND (-1.5) vs Dark Phoenix (+1.5) BUY HARD GRIND 100¢ $5 10h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ReThink (-3.5) vs Wingman (+3.5) BUY Wingman 89¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.95 · official $14.95 (match) · 3474 history records