Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf497…5ce0 sports 1252 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,042 (-4%) realized −$1,959 · open −$83
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%569W / 680L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$808est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days−$131
14 days−$157
30 days−$8,762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,041
other 8% +$10
crypto 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -42.8% -48.2% 39% 36% -17.2%
≤30d 521 -51.6% -56.2% 23% 22% -50.8%
≤90d 1249 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 45% -11.6%
all 1249 -4.6% -13.7% 46% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 45% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 43% -20.0%
15% -29.5% 41% -27.8%
20% -36.4% 29% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$30 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,602
Realized−$1,959
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses569 / 680
Est. fees paid−$808
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1249 / 1252
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $682 $617 −$64 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $516 $563 +$46 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $487 $422 −$65 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $302 +$34 +11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $300 +$103 +34%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $24 −$24 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $58 +$42 +72%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $42 +$6 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $38 −$37 -99%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $32 +$28 +90%
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $32 +$18 +57%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Raja Club Athletic vs. UnionTouargaSports: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 +$1 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $69 +$31 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $80 +$20 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $40 −$39 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $48 +$3 +7%
Netherlands vs. Poland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $36 +$19 +52%
Netherlands vs. Poland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $32 +$31 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $27 −$26 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $23 −$23 -98%
Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $32 +$18 +55%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $25 +$54 +216%
Netherlands vs. Poland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $21 −$20 -98%
Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $32 +$23 +70%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $26 −$26 -99%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $28 −$28 -98%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $42 −$41 -98%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $36 +$34 +93%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $32 −$31 -97%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $65 −$64 -99%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $35 +$2 +5%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $49 +$11 +21%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $26 +$23 +88%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $24 −$3 -12%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $34 +$16 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $228 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $268 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $163 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $337 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $404 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $24 41h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 41h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $15 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $22 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $8 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $15 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $0 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $42 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 21¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 21¢ $30 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 21¢ $17 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $42 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $58 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,602.27 · official $1,602.27 (match) · 3500 history records