trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 20¢ | $8 | $13 | +$4 (+52%) |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $16 | $10 | −$6 (-38%) |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 13¢ | 16¢ | $6 | $8 | +$1 (+23%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 11¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-19%) |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 13¢ | 7¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-50%) |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 13¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 14¢ | 1¢ | $7 | $1 | −$6 (-90%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 14 | $21 | −$5 | -22% |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $41 | −$10 | -25% |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $26 | +$6 | +23% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 12 | $60 | −$6 | -10% |
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 11 | $15 | −$4 | -23% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 17% | 17% | -19.2% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 17% | 17% | -19.2% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 17% | 17% | -19.2% |
| all | 6 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 17% | 17% | -19.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.5% | 17% | -19.2% |
| 10% | -26.3% | 17% | -26.9% |
| 15% | -33.4% | 0% | -34.0% |
| 20% | -39.9% | 0% | -40.5% |