Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf494…a0d8
other · 5 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$1 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$3
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 3 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 80% $0
sports 20% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.2% -35.9% 50% 50% -35.7%
≤30d 2 -29.2% -35.9% 50% 50% -35.7%
≤90d 2 -29.2% -35.9% 50% 50% -35.7%
all 2 -29.2% -35.9% 50% 50% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 50% -35.7%
10% -42.1% 50% -41.8%
15% -47.7% 50% -47.4%
20% -52.8% 0% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 6 history records