Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf491…ee5e world 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,872 (-12%) realized −$3,583 · open −$289
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,405per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,521
7 days−$2,395
14 days−$1,898
30 days−$2,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$2,429
finance 2% −$37
other 0% −$56
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.1% -20.4% 20% 0% -27.7%
≤30d 22 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 23% -20.4%
≤90d 22 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 23% -20.4%
all 22 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 23% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 23% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 14% -28.0%
15% -32.3% 0% -34.9%
20% -39.0% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$996) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$270 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$3,344
Realized−$3,583
Unrealized−$289
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,405
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 60¢ $3,633 $3,344 −$289 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $5,918 −$1,521 -26%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $4,470 −$663 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $494 −$27 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1,029 −$184 -18%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $63 −$5 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 05 $2,149 +$162 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1,000 +$339 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $996 +$136 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $24 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $132 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 31 $105 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $350 +$42 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $61 +$15 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 31 $81 +$22 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $150 −$113 -75%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $300 −$219 -73%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $522 −$178 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $500 +$22 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? May 29 $59 +$2 +4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? May 29 $103 −$10 -10%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 29 $100 −$56 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $247 0m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $280 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $243 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $26 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $55 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $152 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $204 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $492 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $213 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $327 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $21 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $12 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $230 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $14 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $100 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $0 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $105 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $20 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $0 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $139 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $2,395 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,344.08 · official $3,344.08 (match) · 281 history records