Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf48e…8fa3 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$730 (-21%) realized −$730 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$187
14 days−$187
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$386
other 22% −$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -43.6% -49.0% 14% 14% -41.2%
≤30d 7 -43.6% -49.0% 14% 14% -41.2%
≤90d 29 -29.4% -36.1% 28% 28% -30.0%
all 29 -29.4% -36.1% 28% 28% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 28% -30.0%
10% -42.2% 28% -36.7%
15% -47.8% 28% -42.8%
20% -52.9% 28% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$79 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage40d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$47 -93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $126 −$4 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $126 −$3 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5) May 22 $59 −$58 -98%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) May 22 $79 −$78 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 22 $76 +$63 +82%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 22 $72 −$70 -98%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) May 22 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $116 +$108 +93%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) May 22 $164 −$51 -31%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America May 21 $183 −$112 -61%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $99 −$98 -99%
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challen May 20 $116 −$115 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $253 −$23 -9%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $198 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $192 −$190 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $152 +$106 +70%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $152 +$100 +66%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 19 $102 −$14 -14%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs May 19 $201 +$148 +74%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) May 18 $136 +$129 +95%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) May 18 $100 +$189 +188%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $98 −$95 -98%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 66¢ $121 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 62¢ $124 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $126 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $126 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 35h
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5) BUY Ursa 32¢ $59 34d
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $79 34d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) SELL Gen.G 100¢ $139 34d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 43¢ $72 35d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 54¢ $76 35d
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) BUY paiN 56¢ $76 35d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B SELL MIBR 98¢ $223 35d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY MIBR 50¢ $116 35d
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL Karmine Corp 45¢ $113 35d
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America SELL Evil Geniuses $3 36d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY 3DMAX 56¢ $99 36d
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America BUY Evil Geniuses 59¢ $68 36d
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America SELL Sentinels 40¢ $68 36d
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America BUY Sentinels 66¢ $115 36d
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challen BUY Maryville University 70¢ $116 36d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL Team Falcons 56¢ $230 37d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY NIP 51¢ $198 37d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY paiN 57¢ $192 37d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $253 37d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL Team Spirit 95¢ $258 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records