trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 26¢ | 28¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+10%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-11%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? | Yes | 7¢ | 5¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-33%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? | Jun 14 | $4 | +$8 | +178% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $10 | +$18 | +191% |
| Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? | Jun 14 | $3 | −$1 | -36% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? | Jun 13 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 13 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $3 | +$18 | +570% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $48 | −$9 | -19% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $74 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 06 | $3 | +$10 | +321% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $3 | +$3 | +104% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 20 | $3 | +$10 | +299% |
| Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | May 19 | $5 | +$16 | +310% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $33 | +$57 | +173% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +35.0% | +22.1% | 36% | 27% | -5.3% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +99.5% | +80.5% | 56% | 50% | +34.1% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +99.5% | +80.5% | 56% | 50% | +34.1% |
| all | 16 | +99.5% | +80.5% | 56% | 50% | +34.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +80.5% | 50% | +34.1% |
| 10% | +63.2% | 50% | +21.2% |
| 15% | +47.5% | 50% | +9.5% |
| 20% | +33.0% | 50% | -1.2% |