Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf485…041e
sports · 22 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$101 +42%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$104 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$20
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage26d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 6 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$8
14 days+$18
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $4 +$8 +178%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +191%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$18 +570%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $48 −$9 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $3 +$10 +321%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3 +$3 +104%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $3 +$10 +299%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $5 +$16 +310%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $33 +$57 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% +$117
other 13% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 93¢ $12 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $28 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 1h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $2 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $2 3h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $2 17h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 17h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $19 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $11 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $55 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $21 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $16 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $11 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $11 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+80.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +35.0% +22.1% 36% 27% -5.3%
≤30d 16 +99.5% +80.5% 56% 50% +34.1%
≤90d 16 +99.5% +80.5% 56% 50% +34.1%
all 16 +99.5% +80.5% 56% 50% +34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.5% 50% +34.1%
10% +63.2% 50% +21.2%
15% +47.5% 50% +9.5%
20% +33.0% 50% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.33 · official $20.34 (match) · 71 history records