Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf485…697f other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$5
other 32% +$3
sports 11% $0
politics 7% +$1
crypto 4% −$7
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.3% -8.4% 67% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 0% -8.1%
all 30 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.3% 3% -17.9%
15% -28.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage248d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $115 +$4 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Nov 20 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Nov 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 23 $17 +$4 +26%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 22 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $8 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $8 $0 -2%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $65 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $55 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $54 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $58 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $54 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $21 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $55 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 180d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 203d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 204d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 204d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $14 204d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $2 204d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $4 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.05 · official $64.05 (match) · 92 history records