Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F4 0xf482…fe1b other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,264 (-14%) realized −$1,399 · open +$135
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$2,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$598
14 days−$1,289
30 days−$1,289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$684
politics 33% −$1,964
sports 3% −$133
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.0% +1.4% 81% 69% -18.7%
≤30d 28 +4.1% -5.8% 75% 64% -27.2%
≤90d 31 -5.7% -14.7% 68% 58% -30.0%
all 31 -5.7% -14.7% 68% 58% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 58% -30.0%
10% -22.9% 42% -36.7%
15% -30.3% 26% -42.8%
20% -37.2% 19% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$276 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$2,162
Realized−$1,399
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)31 / 42
History coverage120d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 100¢ $520 $573 +$53 (+10%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $314 $325 +$11 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $200 $220 +$20 (+10%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $193 $197 +$3 (+2%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 84¢ 100¢ $150 $178 +$28 (+18%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 89¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $158 −$38 -24%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $196 −$144 -74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $122 +$66 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $111 +$11 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$199 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $320 +$107 +33%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $117 +$89 +76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $552 +$62 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$68 +22%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $66 +$22 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $232 +$132 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $226 +$73 +32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $219 +$7 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $1,311 −$1,301 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $216 +$43 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $500 −$491 -98%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian pres Apr 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 13 $220 −$211 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $115 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $52 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $57 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 38¢ $57 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $196 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $122 7h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $125 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $3 35h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $111 35h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $194 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 42h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 42h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $118 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $117 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $202 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 3d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 3d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $351 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,162.13 · official $2,162.14 (match) · 96 history records