Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf47d…2834 sports 815 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,621 (-5%) realized −$1,621 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%362W / 448L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$321est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$11
14 days−$36
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2,023
crypto 21% −$177
other 1% +$265
culture 0% +$2
politics 0% −$5
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -0.8% -10.2% 51% 50% -9.7%
≤30d 446 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 50% -13.4%
≤90d 762 -0.7% -10.2% 45% 44% -15.4%
all 810 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 44% -15.1%
10% -19.1% 42% -23.2%
15% -26.9% 39% -30.6%
20% -34.1% 37% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$36 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1,621
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses362 / 448
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions1
Markets (closed)810 / 815
History coverage105d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 810 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 386 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$9 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$14 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$11 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$14 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$14 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$8 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -91%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $14 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 41m
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway BUY 2¢ $19 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.93 · official $24.93 · 1880 history records