Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F4 0xf47a…e499 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate45%5W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day44.8pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)-25.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-17.4%	-25.3%	45%	18%	-15.7%
≤30d	11	-17.4%	-25.3%	45%	18%	-15.7%
≤90d	11	-17.4%	-25.3%	45%	18%	-15.7%
all	11	-17.4%	-25.3%	45%	18%	-15.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover44.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.3%	18%	-15.7%
10% ← realistic here	-32.4%	9%	-23.8%
15%	-39.0%	0%	-31.2%
20%	-45.0%	0%	-37.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

60% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.49 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$12

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses5 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day44.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 27	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$14	-54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 27	$76	−$16	-21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 27	$76	+$5	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 27	$155	+$38	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 27	$50	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$27	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 26	$127	−$3	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 26	$101	+$13	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 26	$135	−$22	-16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 26	$127	+$9	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	SELL Up	23¢	$12	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$26	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	SELL Down	9¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$29	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$67	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Down	58¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Down	58¢	$55	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Down	22¢	$25	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$52	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$52	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$50	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	SELL Down	84¢	$59	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$51	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records