Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf479…8f8c
crypto · 222 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,321 -64%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,312 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,312
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses36 / 185
Open positions1
Markets (closed)221 / 222
History coverage48d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 221 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$251
14 days−$279
30 days−$1,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$20 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$20 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$19 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$20 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$20 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$20 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$20 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$20 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$20 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$59 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$62 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$30 -191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $15 −$30 -194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$63 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 29 $16 +$59 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 29 $15 −$30 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 29 $16 +$62 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 29 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $16 −$30 -190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 29 $15 −$28 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 29 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $15 −$28 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 29 $16 +$59 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 28 $16 −$30 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $16 −$30 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $15 −$28 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 28 $16 −$30 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 28 $21 +$86 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 27 $15 +$78 +501%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $16 −$30 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 27 $16 −$30 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $15 −$28 -189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 27 $15 −$30 -195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 27 $7 −$13 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 27 $15 −$28 -188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$2,321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -28.7% -35.5% 14% 14% -20.9%
≤30d 100 -24.1% -31.3% 17% 17% -16.9%
≤90d 221 -25.0% -32.1% 16% 16% -27.5%
all 221 -25.0% -32.1% 16% 16% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 16% -27.5%
10% -38.6% 16% -34.4%
15% -44.6% 16% -40.7%
20% -50.0% 16% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $1.06 (match) · 733 history records