Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf478…3622
sports · 65 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$960 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$960 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$5
Realized+$960
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Spurs 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Celtics 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 248.5 Under 55¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - November 29, 5AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $266 $0 −$266 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Knicks 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - November 29, 9AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $528 $0 −$528 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $6 +$6 +114%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $8 +$4 +47%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 +$7 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 30 $5 +$7 +146%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $6 +$6 +89%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $7 −$7 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 May 22 $8 +$4 +59%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 22 $7 +$5 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 17 $7 +$5 +73%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $5 +$7 +124%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $4 −$3 -99%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 11 $3 +$3 +89%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 11 $4 +$2 +41%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 May 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 29 $2 +$2 +101%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 29 $2 +$2 +101%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Apr 29 $3 +$2 +96%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 29 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 29 $4 +$3 +86%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5 Apr 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 23 $3 +$3 +101%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Apr 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% +$1,002
politics 23% −$1
sports 6% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $3 36m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $2 36m
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 25h
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $6 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $979 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $8 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4 6d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 8d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $2 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 12d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 13d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $3 13d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 59¢ $7 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $6 16d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 30¢ $3 17d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 30¢ $2 17d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 18d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 18d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 18d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $6 18d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $7 20d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 21d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 63¢ $4 21d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 22d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 43% 43% -9.3%
≤30d 26 -22.2% -29.6% 38% 38% -10.9%
≤90d 58 -19.6% -27.2% 41% 41% -12.5%
all 64 -17.8% -25.6% 42% 42% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 42% +10.1%
10% -32.7% 42% -0.5%
15% -39.2% 42% -10.1%
20% -45.2% 39% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.80 · official $4.80 (match) · 168 history records