Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf475…001d world 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%27W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$4
other 19% −$2
sports 13% +$2
politics 12% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% +$4
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 12% -7.6%
≤30d 30 -1.7% -11.0% 33% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 77 -1.8% -11.2% 29% 5% -9.5%
all 86 -2.2% -11.5% 31% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -9.8%
10% -20.0% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage542d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $41 +$3 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $13 +$2 +12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $14 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $66 −$3 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $46 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $57 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $82 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $147 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $131 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $44 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $17 −$3 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $22 +$4 +18%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $15 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $50 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $44 −$2 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $99 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $158 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $61 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $9 16m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $17 16m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $26 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $49 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $49 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $40 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $5 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $34 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $44 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $20 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $20 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $14 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.00 (match) · 372 history records