Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf474…da2a crypto 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+2%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate91%93W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day71.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +0.9% -8.7% 91% 12% -10.9%
≤30d 102 +0.9% -8.7% 91% 12% -10.9%
≤90d 102 +0.9% -8.7% 91% 12% -10.9%
all 102 +0.9% -8.7% 91% 12% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 12% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 5% -19.5%
15% -25.4% 4% -27.2%
20% -32.8% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses93 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day71.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$99 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$17 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $49.73 · 198 history records