Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf474…2775 sports 933 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (262 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,209 (-23%) realized −$3,184 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate38%422W / 679L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day261.8pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,564
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (262 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 732 -36.2% -42.3% 38% 7% -48.1%
≤30d 1101 -37.8% -43.7% 38% 11% -44.6%
≤90d 1101 -37.8% -43.7% 38% 11% -44.6%
all 1101 -37.8% -43.7% 38% 11% -44.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover261.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.7% 11% -44.6%
10% ← realistic here -49.1% 5% -49.9%
15% -54.0% 3% -54.8%
20% -58.5% 2% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$3,184
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses422 / 679
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1101 / 933
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day261.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 40¢ 79¢ $11 $21 +$11 (+100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 46¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 48¢ 54¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Hiromi Abe 66¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+51%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 40¢ 78¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+95%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ 55¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 43¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Rina Saigo 52¢ 21¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-60%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 56¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 34¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Ikumi Yamazaki 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Samira De Stefano vs. Daria Snigur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Swansea City AFC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Sporting Kansas City vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 W Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -175%
Counter-Strike: CarritoSpain vs Diamant Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -285%
Set 1 Winner: Stefano vs Snigur Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Gil Vicente FC vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Dominika Salkova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Hashiras - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Rec Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Alliance (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fina Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Kinoa (BO3) - European Pro League Regul Jun 17 $0 −$2 -868%
D.C. United SC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 −$6 -8605%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -173%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Gabriela Ruse vs. Oceane Dodin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Charlotte FC vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Samsunspor vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
AA Ponte Preta vs. SC Recife: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champ Jun 17 $1 −$2 -204%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 20¢ $1 7m
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Ikumi Yamazaki 27¢ $1 20m
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Ikumi Yamazaki 25¢ $1 21m
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Hiromi Abe 66¢ $4 24m
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Hiromi Abe 66¢ $3 24m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $18 24m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $31 24m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 96¢ $18 50m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 5¢ $1 50m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $26 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 71¢ $9 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $107 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Rina Saigo 52¢ $3 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Rina Saigo 52¢ $3 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Rina Saigo 51¢ $2 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Rina Saigo 51¢ $1 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Rina Saigo 53¢ $0 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Rina Saigo 53¢ $3 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 41¢ $1 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 38¢ $2 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 35¢ $1 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 37¢ $2 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 42¢ $3 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 42¢ $2 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Rina Saigo 51¢ $3 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 93¢ $100 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 85¢ $20 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 85¢ $20 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 92¢ $8 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 10¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.86 · official $100.94 (match) · 3500 history records