Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf473…3ea8 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$687 (+34%) realized +$692 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$430
30 days+$748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$4
sports 37% +$682
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤90d 10 +31.2% +18.7% 90% 30% +65.1%
all 14 +8.1% -2.2% 79% 21% +61.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 21% +61.3%
10% -11.5% 21% +45.8%
15% -20.1% 21% +31.7%
20% -27.9% 21% +18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$56 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.07 per $1 lost it wins $5.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$1,151
Realized+$692
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage165d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $821 $815 −$6 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $341 $337 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $250 +$430 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $184 +$318 +172%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $151 +$97 +65%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? May 07 $16 $0 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? May 07 $17 $0 +1%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 15 $167 −$164 -98%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netflix reach $455 in January? Feb 05 $17 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? Feb 05 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,151.23 · official $1,151.23 (match) · 30 history records