Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F4 0xf472…a262 sports 332 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$77,283 (-24%) realized −$76,362 · open −$921
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%58W / 261L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$965per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$7,404est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,613
7 days−$4,613
14 days−$3,697
30 days−$9,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$21,564
other 11% −$18,514
politics 5% −$3,967
world 2% −$1,635
tech 0% −$1,021
finance 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -76.0% -78.3% 17% 12% -61.6%
≤30d 44 -50.6% -55.3% 16% 14% -58.1%
≤90d 308 -43.0% -48.5% 18% 16% -22.4%
all 319 -41.1% -46.7% 18% 16% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.7% 16% -22.6%
10% -51.8% 15% -30.0%
15% ← realistic here -56.5% 14% -36.8%
20% -60.7% 14% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$1,022) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -47% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,050 vs −$631 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1,853
Realized−$76,362
Unrealized−$921
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses58 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$7,404
Open positions13
Markets (closed)319 / 332
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$965
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 49¢ 70¢ $300 $432 +$132 (+44%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $361 $385 +$24 (+7%)
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? No 15¢ 16¢ $221 $244 +$23 (+11%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $990 $238 −$752 (-76%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 23¢ 22¢ $201 $189 −$13 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $164 $159 −$5 (-3%)
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $229 $145 −$84 (-37%)
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $111 $16 −$95 (-85%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-37%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-55%)
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $64 $10 −$54 (-84%)
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $39 $6 −$34 (-86%)
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 +$75 +73%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 22 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 22 $1,483 +$1,232 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 22 $619 −$619 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 22 $205 −$205 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 22 $159 +$23 +14%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 22 $1,003 −$1,003 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 22 $669 −$669 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 22 $668 −$668 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 22 $694 −$694 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 22 $995 −$995 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $307 +$13 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $182 +$547 +300%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $154 +$370 +241%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $86 −$11 -13%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $141 −$47 -33%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $69 −$2 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $37 −$5 -12%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $70 −$2 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $146 +$124 +85%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $306 −$306 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $258 −$258 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 24 $410 −$410 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $267 −$267 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 24 $85 −$22 -26%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $231 −$231 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 24 $668 −$668 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $1,702 −$191 -11%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 24 $745 −$745 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2,342 −$2,342 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 24 $1,960 −$487 -25%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $1,009 +$23 +2%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 12 $936 −$325 -35%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 12 $750 −$750 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 12 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 12 $514 −$514 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $228 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $206 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 43¢ $434 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $337 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $305 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $315 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $0 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $189 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $69 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $70 4h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 24¢ $216 5h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 6¢ $103 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech SELL Magdalena Frech 29¢ $319 5h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 5h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 5h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 5h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 5h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 5h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 5h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $275 5h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $240 5h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $142 5h
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 7h
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7h
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 27¢ $307 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,853.06 · official $1,853.06 (match) · 3500 history records