Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf46f…0e0f
sports · 110 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$371 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$348 · open +$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$368
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses63 / 36
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions9
Markets (closed)99 / 110
History coverage58d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 9 History 99 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$147
14 days+$291
30 days+$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 57¢ 81¢ $60 $84 +$24 (+41%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 74¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 60¢ 57¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 +$29 +73%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +143%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +110%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$38 +185%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +107%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 −$15 -73%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +145%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +42%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $20 +$33 +162%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $25 −$23 -93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Gentzsch (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 11 $110 −$110 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $10 +$36 +350%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $58 +$7 +11%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$282
other 27% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 46¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $15 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $25 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $26 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $43 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $58 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $21 8h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $22 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 15h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 26h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $5 26h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $29 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 40¢ $10 28h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -2.9% -12.2% 54% 54% -18.8%
≤30d 99 +14.2% +3.3% 64% 64% +5.4%
≤90d 99 +14.2% +3.3% 64% 64% +5.4%
all 99 +14.2% +3.3% 64% 64% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 64% +5.4%
10% -6.6% 62% -4.7%
15% -15.6% 59% -13.9%
20% -23.9% 37% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.45 · official $393.45 · 228 history records