Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf46c…1618 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$304 (+9%) realized +$305 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$157
7 days+$635
14 days+$586
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$117
sports 46% +$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +47.4% +33.3% 57% 57% +29.3%
≤30d 24 +16.2% +5.1% 46% 46% +6.8%
≤90d 35 +23.2% +11.4% 43% 40% -1.3%
all 35 +23.2% +11.4% 43% 40% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 40% -1.3%
10% +0.8% 40% -10.8%
15% -9.0% 40% -19.4%
20% -17.9% 37% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$81 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$305
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage52d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $129 +$71 +55%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $122 +$97 +79%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$58 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $185 −$183 -99%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $109 +$141 +129%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $77 +$173 +226%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$400 +400%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$200 +250%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $155 +$105 +67%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $210 +$90 +43%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $74 −$73 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $77 +$236 +307%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $123 −$122 -99%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? Jun 13 $51 +$38 +75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $159 −$156 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Myth Esports vs The Bandits - Game 1 Winner May 14 $211 +$14 +7%
Will Santos FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? May 10 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $16 −$16 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Will O'Higgins FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? May 08 $51 +$81 +158%
Will CA Boston River vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw? May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs Supernova (BO3) - North American Challengers Lea May 07 $25 +$75 +307%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC end in a draw? May 06 $21 +$133 +650%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $76 16h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 55¢ $122 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $185 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $104 3d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $109 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $77 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $38 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $54 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $80 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $155 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $46 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $42 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $74 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.11 · official $99.12 (match) · 65 history records