Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf46a…570f crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate93%13W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.5% -4.5% 93% 43% -4.7%
≤30d 14 +5.5% -4.5% 93% 43% -4.7%
≤90d 14 +5.5% -4.5% 93% 43% -4.7%
all 14 +5.5% -4.5% 93% 43% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 43% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 29% -13.8%
15% -22.0% 0% -22.2%
20% -29.7% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses13 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 78¢ 44¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.17 · official $2.39 (match) · 58 history records