Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf467…935f finance 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$33,735 (+6%) realized +$16,391 · open +$17,344
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate88%50W / 7L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$7,052per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$252,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 94% +$71,434
crypto 2% −$747
tech 2% +$288
sports 2% −$4,444
world 0% +$48
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.6% -7.2% 80% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 28 -2.3% -11.6% 79% 11% +0.0%
≤90d 54 +29.1% +16.8% 87% 15% +4.6%
all 57 +27.6% +15.4% 88% 14% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.4% 14% +4.6%
10% +4.4% 7% -5.4%
15% ← realistic here -5.7% 4% -14.5%
20% -15.0% 4% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$5,450) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
32.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,093 vs −$1,081 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×10.11 per $1 lost it wins $10.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$252,635
Realized+$16,391
Unrealized+$17,344
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses50 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions23
Markets (closed)57 / 80
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$7,052
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $56,768 $61,210 +$4,441 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $53,172 $55,494 +$2,323 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 87¢ 100¢ $43,877 $50,398 +$6,521 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 94¢ 100¢ $22,562 $23,963 +$1,402 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $19,731 $20,368 +$637 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $11,483 $11,777 +$294 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $9,365 $10,423 +$1,058 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $4,424 $4,659 +$235 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,716 $3,753 +$37 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,055 $3,158 +$103 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $2,380 $2,570 +$189 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,380 $2,406 +$25 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $810 $822 +$12 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $502 $521 +$19 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $457 $480 +$22 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $132 $140 +$7 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 96¢ 100¢ $133 $139 +$6 (+4%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+4%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? No 93¢ 95¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 25 $22 −$2 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 25 $560 +$39 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 24 $953 +$41 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Jun 23 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 19 $46,405 +$14,815 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $526 +$27 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11,349 −$519 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $87 +$13 +15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,211 −$4,611 -74%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $534 +$22 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $602 +$17 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $503 +$25 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $4,227 +$136 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $4,060 +$83 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $533 +$16 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $173 +$5 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $194 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $53 +$2 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $23,503 +$629 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $393 +$3 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $46 −$45 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $24,374 +$1,074 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 30 $27,263 +$1,723 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $18,840 +$2,253 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $2,952 +$101 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $702 −$229 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 28 $17,496 +$1,460 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 27 $5,477 +$194 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 26 $2,070 +$181 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $58 +$12 +20%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $2,738 +$145 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 09 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $1,160 +$29 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $45 +$5 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 02 $30 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 01 $8,376 +$365 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $7,882 +$244 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $46,149 +$2,799 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $4,670 +$211 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 01 $4,980 +$113 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $9,771 +$514 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 30 $602 +$31 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? BUY No 93¢ $56 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $66 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $17 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $128 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $107 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1,039 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $8 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,038 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $392 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $996 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $864 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 100¢ $599 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $98 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 97¢ $8 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 97¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 99¢ $445 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252,635.43 · official $252,635.73 (match) · 3500 history records