Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf465…1f7d crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,333 (-10%) realized −$1,333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%47W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$361
7 days+$361
14 days+$361
30 days+$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,561
sports 1% +$119
other 0% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +143.2% +120.1% 75% 75% +82.4%
≤30d 8 +143.2% +120.1% 75% 75% +82.4%
≤90d 70 +28.8% +16.5% 49% 47% -12.2%
all 103 +10.4% -0.1% 46% 44% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 44% -17.9%
10% -9.7% 43% -25.7%
15% -18.4% 38% -32.9%
20% -26.4% 35% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$112 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses47 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage95d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$155 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$104 +198%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Braz Jun 25 $26 +$66 +257%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will M Jun 25 $20 +$33 +164%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $26 +$81 +318%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 +$53 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 13 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 13 $20 +$30 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 13 $2 +$19 +928%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 13 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$10 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 13 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 13 $4 +$3 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 13 $310 −$259 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 13 $110 +$152 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 12 $911 −$884 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 12 $500 +$339 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 12 $500 −$477 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 12 $8 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 12 $111 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 12 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 11 $200 −$191 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 11 $125 +$104 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 11 $300 −$174 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 11 $300 +$976 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 11 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 11 $110 −$50 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 11 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 11 $57 −$50 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 11 $70 −$68 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 11 $180 −$94 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 11 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 11 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 11 $110 −$23 -21%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 11 $630 +$398 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 11 $650 +$71 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 11 $170 −$159 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 11 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 11 $100 −$78 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 10 $100 −$94 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $27 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 46¢ $46 5h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 27¢ $26 5h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY 23¢ $26 5h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will M BUY 37¢ $20 6h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Braz BUY 27¢ $26 6h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Norway BUY 3¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $115 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $50 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $20 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $60 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $51 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records