Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf463…a274 politics 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,743 (+35%) realized +$1,757 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%32W / 76L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$207
14 days+$201
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$1,560
other 18% +$72
crypto 18% −$189
sports 5% +$373
world 2% −$62
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +56.1% +41.2% 55% 55% +45.3%
≤30d 21 +33.6% +20.9% 43% 43% +20.8%
≤90d 22 +27.5% +15.4% 41% 41% +19.4%
all 108 -9.7% -18.3% 30% 24% +25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 24% +25.3%
10% -26.1% 19% +13.3%
15% -33.3% 19% +2.4%
20% -39.8% 18% -7.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$12 · ×6.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$1,757
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses32 / 76
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)108 / 117
History coverage564d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $32 $41 +$9 (+28%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+177%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? No 5¢ 2¢ $57 $27 −$30 (-53%)
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 22 $180 +$157 +88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$9 -84%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$20 +201%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $42 −$13 -30%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 25 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for less than 2 seconds on October 30, 2 Oct 29 $5 +$10 +185%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Stelian Bujduveanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on October Oct 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 23 $161 −$43 -27%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Delia Velculescu? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +252%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of USR? Jun 20 $35 +$45 +126%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ludovic Orban? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sebastian Burduja? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Kelemen Hunor? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ionuț Dumitru? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Candidate Lucian Croitoru? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 17 $121 +$6 +5%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cătălin Cîrstoiu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $460 +$87 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $41 3d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 5d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 5d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $5 6d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $41 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $27 6d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.22 · official $220.22 (match) · 680 history records