Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

F4 0xf462…a3a5 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$43 (+6%) realized +$43 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate75%6W / 2L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$74per market

Trades / day21.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+11.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+22.9%	+11.2%	75%	38%	+4.7%
≤30d	8	+22.9%	+11.2%	75%	38%	+4.7%
≤90d	8	+22.9%	+11.2%	75%	38%	+4.7%
all	8	+22.9%	+11.2%	75%	38%	+4.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+11.2%	38%	+4.7%
10% ← realistic here	+0.6%	38%	-5.3%
15%	-9.1%	12%	-14.5%
20%	-18.0%	12%	-22.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.24 per $1 lost it wins $3.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized+$43

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses6 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$74

Trades / day21.0

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	64¢	62¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 20	$25	−$25	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 20	$151	+$14	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 20	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 20	$173	+$60	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 20	$127	+$44	+34%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$30	+291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$100	+$10	+10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$100	+$4	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$110	10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	96¢	$100	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.27 · official $30.27 (match) · 26 history records