Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

F4 0xf460…2c75 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$14 (+13%) realized +$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-10.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+49.1%	+34.9%	100%	100%	+6.9%
≤30d	3	-0.6%	-10.1%	67%	67%	+5.5%
≤90d	3	-0.6%	-10.1%	67%	67%	+5.5%
all	3	-0.6%	-10.1%	67%	67%	+5.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.1%	67%	+5.5%
10%	-18.7%	33%	-4.6%
15%	-26.5%	33%	-13.8%
20%	-33.7%	33%	-22.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.01 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.02 per $1 lost it wins $14.02

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized+$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage14d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 25	$76	+$13	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 23	$1	+$1	+81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$31	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$76	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$1	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.74 · official $29.74 (match) · 6 history records