trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +119.5% | +98.6% | 100% | 100% | +98.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +119.5% | +98.6% | 100% | 100% | +98.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -13.3% | -21.6% | 50% | 50% | -23.7% |
| all | 16 | +4.7% | -5.3% | 56% | 44% | +0.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.3% | 44% | +0.1% |
| 10% | -14.4% | 44% | -9.5% |
| 15% | -22.6% | 38% | -18.2% |
| 20% | -30.2% | 31% | -26.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 41¢ | 40¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 13¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | Yes | 24¢ | 23¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $9 | $9 | −$1 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 14 | $32 | +$38 | +120% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 04 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | May 04 | $30 | +$7 | +23% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 12 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 12 | $20 | +$12 | +61% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Apr 12 | $50 | +$45 | +89% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Mar 19 | $63 | −$63 | -100% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 19 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Feb 28 | $76 | +$37 | +49% |
| Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Dec 08 | $50 | +$126 | +252% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? | Sep 18 | $25 | −$18 | -73% |
| Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jul 22 | $56 | +$4 | +6% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Jun 03 | $39 | −$39 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | May 26 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? | May 21 | $37 | −$37 | -100% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | May 19 | $24 | +$35 | +144% |