Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf45d…5b2d
crypto · 757 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$38 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses551 / 205
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)756 / 757
History coverage149d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 756 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$22
14 days+$38
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +37%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$44
sports 2% −$5
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +12.5% +1.8% 83% 77% +4.7%
≤30d 172 +10.0% -0.5% 78% 67% -3.3%
≤90d 397 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 49% -29.9%
all 756 +1.0% -8.6% 73% 60% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 60% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 40% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 24% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.23 · official $21.23 (match) · 2025 history records