Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf45c…ad07 crypto 31 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-7%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$32
crypto 22% +$12
other 12% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% -23.2%
≤30d 26 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% -23.2%
≤90d 26 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% -23.2%
all 26 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 42% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 42% -23.2%
10% -30.4% 42% -30.6%
15% -37.1% 42% -37.3%
20% -43.3% 31% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $14 +$9 +64%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$8 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 72¢ $0 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 50¢ $147 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $10 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $23 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $14 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 AND Qat BUY 1¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qat BUY 3¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 AND Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY 19¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records