Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf45c…6a48 other 5 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5 (+8%) realized +$2 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$15
world 33% −$8
crypto 17% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.6% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
≤30d 1 +45.6% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
≤90d 1 +45.6% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
all 1 +45.6% +31.7% 100% 100% +31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.7% 100% +31.7%
10% +19.1% 100% +19.1%
15% +7.6% 100% +7.6%
20% -2.9% 0% -2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 14¢ 15¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No 68¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 77¢ 10¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $10 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 77¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? BUY $140 14¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.08 · official $53.08 (match) · 9 history records