Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf45c…d6b7 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate32%18W / 39L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$2
other 27% −$2
sports 20% +$1
economics 7% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 1% +$4
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 57% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 36 -3.5% -12.7% 36% 8% -9.7%
all 57 +2.2% -7.5% 32% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 12% -9.5%
10% -16.4% 12% -18.2%
15% -24.4% 12% -26.1%
20% -31.8% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses18 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)57 / 64
History coverage129d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $254 $0 -0%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $89 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $89 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2 $0 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 31 $2 $0 -3%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 31 $2 $0 +3%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $79 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group St May 23 $1 $0 +40%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Will James Comey leave the country by May 15? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 23 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $79 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $181 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 09 $93 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 6? Apr 09 $5 $0 +2%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 30 $97 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 30 $97 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $99 $0 -0%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 14 $3 +$1 +52%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $98 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 12 $2 +$2 +75%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Mar 07 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $79 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $78 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $90 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $90 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $90 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $90 4d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 4d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 14d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $2 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 23d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $89 23d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $89 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 23d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 23d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 23d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 95¢ $2 23d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $79 23d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $79 25d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 31d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 31d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $85 31d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $85 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.12 · official $14.12 (match) · 173 history records