Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F4 0xf459…a1eb other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$423 (+22%) realized +$393 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$131
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$477
sports 31% −$44
crypto 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +38.3% +25.1% 56% 56% +23.5%
≤30d 9 +38.3% +25.1% 56% 56% +23.5%
≤90d 23 +11.7% +1.0% 61% 57% +10.4%
all 23 +11.7% +1.0% 61% 57% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 57% +10.4%
10% -8.6% 35% -0.2%
15% -17.5% 26% -9.8%
20% -25.5% 22% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$16 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$393
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage38d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Karolina Pliskova 71¢ 100¢ $75 $106 +$31 (+41%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $81 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$52 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $126 +$66 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +115%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $51 +$13 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 18 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $358 +$160 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $331 +$49 +15%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $202 +$131 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +15%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $101 −$6 -6%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 $101 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 16 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 11 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 62¢ $74 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 71¢ $76 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 66¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $66 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $60 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $60 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch SELL Darwin Blanch 83¢ $63 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 65¢ $51 5d
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel SELL Jake Matthews 50¢ $97 30d
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel BUY Jake Matthews 51¢ $101 31d
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $518 31d
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 31d
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $105 31d
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $381 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 31d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $331 31d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.20 · official $145.20 (match) · 54 history records