Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf456…91da other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-7%) realized −$71 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$206
sports 14% +$164
crypto 2% −$26
world 2% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -25.9% -32.9% 26% 26% -18.3%
≤30d 58 -25.9% -32.9% 26% 26% -18.3%
≤90d 58 -25.9% -32.9% 26% 26% -18.3%
all 58 -25.9% -32.9% 26% 26% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 26% -18.3%
10% -39.4% 24% -26.1%
15% -45.2% 24% -33.2%
20% -50.6% 21% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$11 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $49 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $7 +$19 +290%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $19 −$16 -86%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$7 -39%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +145%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$24 +280%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $17 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$35 +244%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 +$35 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$51 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$28 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$27 +114%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$19 -59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +84%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$10 -73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$80 +408%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$23 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $40 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.19 · official $102.20 · 127 history records