Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf456…3855
sports · 688 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,725 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,657 · open −$68
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,657
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses211 / 466
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions9
Markets (closed)677 / 688
History coverage103d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 9 History 677 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days+$244
14 days+$134
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-93%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 22¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Mandel Nallo 61¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Playoffs Gaimin Gladiators 25¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Patricio Pitbull 17¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Maycee Barber 64¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 36¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 8¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner PARIVISION 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims) Ignacio Bahamondes 53¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Legacy 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Virtus.pro 27¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Tundra Esports 31¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$15 -37%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$23 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$26 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $40 +$30 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$36 +185%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $23 +$13 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -94%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $27 +$32 +116%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$37 +121%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $852 +$286 +34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $11 +$62 +550%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $7 −$7 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $16 +$32 +198%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $45 +$32 +72%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $28 −$8 -30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $74 +$10 +14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $27 +$29 +105%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $31 +$11 +34%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $9 −$9 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $14 −$14 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $49 +$95 +195%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $60 −$59 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner May 31 $60 −$58 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner May 31 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 31 $5 +$13 +240%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $56 −$55 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% −$1,658
politics 12% +$178
crypto 5% −$226
other 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 20¢ $10 51m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 16¢ $5 57m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 32¢ $26 58m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 49¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 27¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 13¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 27¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $48 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $24 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 21¢ $15 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 18h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a dra BUY 2¢ $2 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 9¢ $5 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $70 22h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 3¢ $10 23h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 10¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 29¢ $10 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 51¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 5¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $55 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 33¢ $15 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 34¢ $19 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 20¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -9.3% -18.0% 37% 37% +4.7%
≤30d 144 -11.9% -20.3% 35% 35% -8.5%
≤90d 578 -19.9% -27.6% 29% 29% -25.8%
all 677 -18.4% -26.1% 31% 31% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 31% -21.3%
10% -33.2% 30% -28.9%
15% -39.7% 29% -35.7%
20% -45.6% 28% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.16 · official $48.16 · 1747 history records