Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf454…0c2c crypto 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$233 (+5%) realized +$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate34%105W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,254
7 days−$1,254
14 days−$1,254
30 days−$1,254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$421
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -83.2% -84.8% 10% 10% -84.7%
≤30d 83 -83.2% -84.8% 10% 10% -84.7%
≤90d 83 -83.2% -84.8% 10% 10% -84.7%
all 313 -36.2% -42.3% 34% 22% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 22% -33.1%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 18% -39.5%
15% -52.8% 13% -45.4%
20% -57.5% 10% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses105 / 208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)313 / 251
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 313 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$6 -264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$3 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$4 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$7 -1497%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$10 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$6 -557%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$4 -483%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $43 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records